French election predictions

The returns should be coming in from Paris in a couple hours. So. predictions? Sarkozy, Royal, Le Pen, and Bayrou are the front runners in descending order of popularity. Conventional wisdom (i.e. reading the polls) is that Sarkozy and Royal will be the contenders in the run-off, and that LePen's votes will go to Sarkozy. But Le Pen always tends to do better in the actual vote than in the polls, so it could be that Sarkozy and Le Pen make the run off with Royal's votes going to Sarkozy. Either way, Sarkozy wins.

The other long shot possibility is that Bayrou--the moderate who pu-pu's politics--could make it into the run-off. Then it's anybody's guess. Because it's pretty difficult to say whether the votes for the losing candidates would go to Sarkozy or Bayrou.

I'm gonna go with the CW here. Any takers? Winner has to tell ten people about my blog.

Also, Segolene Royal is pretty hott.