Thompson leads?

He does according to this Rasmussen poll I found over at Election Central. Meanwhile, I had a chance to spend a few brief moments with a couple of Thompson supporters this weekend, one of whom seemingly referred to himself as somebody who works for "the Thompson campaign." This only reinforces my sense of the obvious--which is that even people on his advisory committee know that his candidacy is a fait accompli and that he's been raising vast sums of money all over the country in violation of FEC guidelines.

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Not only is Thompson's candidacy a fait accompli, I'd bet money his nomination is a foregone conclusion.

Consider, Thompson's long time lobbying career establishes his bona fides with big business. And, while in the Senate several years ago he chaired a subcommittee on campaign finance reform that was (intentional?) ineffective, effectively protecting the disproportionate political influence of the monied elite. This adds up to bigtime contribution potential. So, he'll be able to compete with anyone on that score.

With the business wing of the party covered, he still needs to appeal the social conservatives. Recently, Richard Land, head of the Southern Baptist Convention, the largest and most mainstream of all the evangelical denominations, gave Thompson a de facto endorsement, saying the nomination was Thompson's to lose and calling him a "southern-fried Reagan". Given Thompson has the presence of a "he man" and an actor's communication skills, as did Reagan, look for him to be marketed as the second coming of St. Ronnie.

Further, his competition is weak. McCain's campaign has already imploded. Giuliani's will implode as soon as New York City firefighters gear up their negative ad campaign puncturing Guiliani's hero of 9/11 image (I expect Rudy to lose his composure publically and catastrophically--people still love the FDNY). That leaves the Mormon (read apostate) from Taxechusetts among the credible candidates.

Thompson is also a member in good standing of the DC elite social set. The opinion makers among the political press love this guy (in some cases literally). The MSM will dutifully follow the script, giving Thompson overwhelmingly positive coverage just as they did with Bush in 2000.

Finally, most voters still don't know who Thompson is. Once they match his face--Look, it's the Law and Order guy!--to his name, it's game over.

Posted by: jm on July 23, 2007 12:05 PM

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