Coal
Here's the full rundown of the Markey hearing:
The bottom line, though, is that some kind of [coal] solution will have to emerge in the next quarter century, during which time the equivalent of 3,000 large coal plants will be built. For some perspective, there are currently the equivalent of 2,000 large coal plants operating in the world. Over 60 years, that translates into 750 billion tons of carbon emissions. I'm working on some back-of-the-envelope math to translate that (very roughly) into its impact on climate, but in the meantime it's worth pointing out that that constitutes 30 percent more carbon than all human coal use [has produced] throughout time.
The result of that math? 575 ppm greenhouse gas concentration, corresponding roughly to a 3.1 degree celsius increase in temperature. Pretty devastating by itself, but this doesn't even take into account other emissions. Which are, I'd say, rather important! Much like Brad Plumer, my preference would be to put the huge subsidies being discussed into wind and solar technology research. But perhaps the best idea is to put tons of money into many different kinds of R&D including CCS. Because in absence of some solution, easily distributable to countries in the developing world, things look pretty bleak.
Comments
Rant on Friday:
I'm very frustrated (and "I'm not going to take it anymore") with reporting on the amount of warming anticipated by various strategies. Sometimes the degree-amount is reported within the US in Fahrenheit degrees, sometimes in centigrade (the worldwide standard) - but usually in both cases with no indication of which measure is used. There is nearly a two-to-one difference, so if 3.1 degrees of heat increase is discussed (in Fahrenheit), that clearly way different than 3.1 degrees centigrade.
I recognize that the stubborn Americans will never adopt the system internationale that nearly the entire world uses (and ALL of the scientific community), but at least we can translate every time with the appropriate alternative measure indicated.
Substance:
Ya, we as a world society are not going to just ignore all that coal in the future. We need a Manhattan Project-scale effort to make coal clean for electric power generation, where the number of sites (power plants) that need cleaning is far less than, for instance, automobiles. Start that effort yesterday! Pay for it with money from 'defense spending', since we are using our military to serve as oil-supply protectors rather than actual defense. (Petraeus's advisor Biddle was quoted as saying we need to plan on 100,000 troops in Iraq for 20 years)
Problem solved :)
Brian, now straighten out the rest of the journalist/pundit cabal in the US!
(and thx on the fix. 3.1C is a BIG number - my recollection is that 1-2 degrees C has world-altering consequences.)
3.1 is unacceptable. It's also right smack in the middle of the expected increase range of 1.5-4.5 Celsius. Woo!
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