Bhutto

I have probably less insight than most into what the murder of Benazir Bhutto means for the future of Pakistan, South Asia, and Afghanistan. But I suppose, even on a blog like mine, it should be noted and mourned.

Similarly, I have zero insight into the perverse question of whom this helps in American politics. But that question should only be asked by those without a hint of shame. And, as such, it's already all over cable news.

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future of Pakistan, South Asia, and Afghanistan

I suspect that forecasting this is akin to forecasting the weather in Portland: hardly ever correct, and best done short term by looking out the window.

What does seem to be consistent in Pakistan is the presence of a cold (warm?) front that never seems to move: the Pakistan military control of both politics and the economy (through military figures heading major enterprises).

I'm far more interested in whether the military can tolerate religious righties (like the Taliban) than whether some figurehead is President or Prime Minister. Although many may struggle for it, democracry is not on the roll in Pakistan, and I don't see factors or groups that will change that - but my forecasting is acceptable only when looking out the window to determine if the near permanently cloudy condition will be supplemented by rain (often) or snow (almost never). Winter sun is as likely here as democracy in Pakistan.

Posted by: JimPortlandOR on December 27, 2007 03:53 PM

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