Now that we're a couple days past the hullabaloo, I should add that I think my initial reaction to the Clinton victory in New Hampshire is only fractionally right and that Kevin Drum's explanation is quite a bit more comprehensive:
None of the "big" explanations seem to pan out, so it's most likely a collection of little explanations: a few points from Biden supporters, a few points from Dodd supporters, a few points from undecideds, a little bit better turnout from women, and perhaps a bit of polling error in the post-Iowa polls. Add it all up and you get a 10-12 point swing. It's not a sexy explanation, but it seems like it's probably the right one.
And the result was a three percentage point victory. This, I think, is the most sober way to describe what happened on Tuesday. Much more sober than, say, treating the non-crying non-story as a crying story, harping on it for 24 hours (creating, perhaps, a small impact on the outcome) then going out and interviewing a dozen old ladies to report proof that the non-crying non-story was actually a very big deal after all. But I guess that's what we're stuck with.
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