What about endorsements?

Interesting post from Chris Bowers on Edwards' role as Clinton spoiler. But a question for people who track these things closely: If Edwards is helping Obama now, it's because we assume that if he disappeared, more of his supporters would move into Hillary's camp than into Obama's. Reasonable enough. But what would happen if Edwards dropped out and then went on to enthusiastically and repeatedly stump for Obama all the way through February? How much do endorsements of that sort matter? I assume it hinges largely on how intensely a candidate's supporters actually... support... their candidate. And my feeling is that Edwards supporters are fairly enthusiastic about him.

Via.

Comments

An Obama endorsement by Edwards that was way more than an endorsement - but an actual joining of the Obama campaign, might have some impact on Edward's committed supporters. Whether Obama would really integrate Edwards and his more fervid supporters into their campaign seems highly questionable to me. As for the non-fervid ones, my guess is that endorsements don't mean much anymore to actual voters, although the media seem to pretend they do.

I don't quite understand why the polls show that many of Edward's supporters would move to Hillary instead of Obama, but I don't understand why the exit polls show Edwards strength among older voters (for instance). Voters are strange beasts. The more I understand how the mind makes rationality out of irrationality the more humble I become on predicting behavioral outcomes.

My overall guess is that after Feb. 5th, the whole scene in the Dem. primary will look a lot different, so.... I'll wait 3 weeks and be much 'smarter'.

Posted by: JimPortlandOR on January 18, 2008 03:56 PM

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