More endorsements

Below the fold I've posted my sundry thoughts from the moments before Hillary Clinton won in California. Have a read if you'd like.

Tonight, Hillary Clinton has won primaries in, at the very least, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Arizona. At the same time Barack Obama has won Kansas, Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, Deleware, Minnesota, North Dakota, Connecticut, Kansas, Idaho, and Utah.

At the time of McCain's big victory speech (and, for him, it's a big victory speech) California, New Mexico, and Missouri are still up for grabs.

The real race, now, is between Obama and Clinton. And yet, even though Obama has picked up a greater number of states than has his rival, and even though he owned tonight's big blowouts, Super Tuesday will almost surely be cast by the press as a victory for Hillary Clinton.

And that's not an entirely ridiculous interpretation. Clinton won the big states. She won Massachusetts despite the fact that its famous and beloved pols, Ted Kennedy, John Kerry, and Deval Patrick all endorsed Obama. And she won in southern (though white-heavy) Tennesee.

But the breakdown is remarkably more complicated than that, and in many ways, each candidate can plausibly claim a good showing tonight. A few weeks back, Hillary showed huge margins almost everywhere--particularly the northeast. Tonight, Obama picked up Connecticut.

And then there's the delegate problem. As long as both candidates wake up tomorrow unembarrassed by the results, and as long as the media reports the outcome with a modicum of sobriety, this will remain a race to the finish line for delegates.

Those won't be set in stone until tomorrow at the earliest. And as of this writing, big-state losses notwithstanding, Obama's doing quite well. In caucus states like Minnessota and North Dakota and Colorado, and in southern states like Georgia and Alabama, he picked up delegates by huge margins. By contrast, in Clinton states like New York and Massachusetts, the spread will be much smaller--in fact he could theoretically still come out on top. If the vote in California is close, as polls seem to indicate it will be, then the delegate race--the real race--will basically remain a dead-heat.

So what, then, is the right way to think about tonight? Well, if election '08 has taught us anything, it's that there's no "right way" to think about primary season. Looking for a "right way" is usually a recipe for a large helping of embarrassment. But going in, one thing seemed clear: Obama had momentum. In the past several days, he has won support of high-profile Democrats across the country--of politicians trying to close the door on the politics of the last decade and a half. If that brief surge was anything other than a coincidence, then any Obama supporters in waiting will have to respond to tonight's news with a sense of urgency. Obama did not lose tonight. Hillary did not, as she had hoped, put an end to this year-long affair.

But he didn't win either. And if his climb in the polls is to continue--if he's to overtake Hillary Clinton once and for all--then some silent big-wigs (maybe Edwards, maybe Dodd, maybe Richardson, maybe even Gore) are going to have to speak up. And soon.