National polling data
With just two days before Super Tuesday, a new Washington Post/ABC News national poll shows the Democratic presidential race extremely close with Sen. Hillary Clinton edging Sen. Barack Obama, 47% to 43%.Key finding: Neither candidate seems to be benefiting more than the other from the exit of John Edwards from the race last week.
Check out this graph from Gallup, though:
For the two weeks before Edwards dropped out, Clinton was pulling roughly 45 percent of voters, Obama roughly 32, and Edwards about 12 or 13. Since Edwards' announcement, Clinton's numbers have grown negligibly, while Obama's have really taken off. It would be wrong to say this proves that Edwards' demise helped Obama (maybe it was positive media coverage post South Carolina, or maybe it's outlying data). But it certainly appears as if a significant majority of erstwhile Edwards supporters are now in Obama's camp.
Comments
Aside from proving that a "significant majority of erstwhile Edwards supporters are now in Obama's camp," this polling does nothing to suggest any real "significant" data. As we saw in Iowa and New Hampshire, it's anyone's guess as to who is leading, and you know how unreliable polls are during primaries.
However, what I assume will happen is that most of America will vote the way of Nevada and Florida, as Hillary enjoys much of the white/Hispanic vote. What traditionally happens, though we didn't see it in S.C. is that Blacks don't show up to vote. I think Hillary knows this all too well. So does Bill, though he predicted that in S.C. Barack would enjoy the success of a Democratic base that is well over 50% Black.
Here in California however, Hillary is the talk of the town and Obama is a promising running mate.
By the by, I'm running a poll station out in California tomorrow and I'll try to send you some observations as the day progresses. Which reminds me. Other than comments, you need to have some "contact Brian Beutler" info on this page.
You're right. Thanks for pointing it out. Will work on that.
OK... I put a link to my email address in my About page.
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