I think Republicans are sorta damned both ways this election cycle. On the one hand, they've gotta hope Hillary wins the nomination, because the data suggests she'd be easier to beat. But on the other hand, they're basically committed to running a shamelessly misogynistic campaign if Clinton wins and a shamelessly racist campaign if Obama wins. And an anti-woman campaign is a much riskier strategy. Politically speaking, blacks are a small minority of voters and swing widely Democratic to begin with. By contrast, there are plenty of moderately conservative Republican/independent women out there who might leave the GOP forever once its id meets the daylight.

Comments
Do they really? I would guess that they would try and saw Clinton/Obama off at the legs by recruiting a female/black VP. I'm not very good at this game, but someone like Condoleeza Rice could undercut the lopsidedness of the historic nature of the race, while emphasizing McCain's hawkishness.
I'm not sure McCain's interested, nor do I know the roster of conservative minorities/women who would be interested, but Republicans do have a good record of nominating minorities to high positions (even if Republican policies at large are highly detrimental to the population at large).
I THINK GINGER NEWPORT SHOULD HAVE RUN FOR PRESIDENT!!!!
Just the thought about who McCain might select for VP candidate(with the gentle guidance of the GOP power structures - not the plural) must give them goopers the hives. McCain, the somewhat senile one, and surely subject to some normal (or abnormal in his case, because of prior stressors) is at least 50/50 on whether he'd make it through 'four more years'. Now, I grant that the WH can hide senility sorta (does anyone really think Ronnie was whole-minded thoughout the second term??). But its somewhat hard to hide a dead President.
In effect, whoever they choose for VP is likely to end up being the President. And that sets off the same problems they've had in the tripartite power and voting bases - which are not the same. Neocon, theocon, or corpcon? Male or Female, White or Minority? Latino or Black or Asian?
Rice as VP? Female, Black, and incompetent. Nice fit on at least one count in the GOP - the count that Bush pioneered. If Rice's mouth is moving, she's lieing. And family values? Single (with close female friend....).
Huck as VP would drive neocons and corpcons into seizures.
Romney? No way he'd sniff McCain's pants every night.
Thompson? He's already half dead.
Goulhiani? hahahahah
What a bullpen!
How about Dick Cheney, with a built-in robotics mechanism?
Don't ya just luv seeing the slimey slimers squirm?
"By contrast, there are plenty of moderately conservative Republican/independent women out there who might leave the GOP forever once its id meets the daylight."
Never underestimate the ability of red state women to embrace misogyny in the name of "traditional family values."
Also, an awful lot of women instinctively don't trust other women, especially eeeevil librul witches like Hillary (some evolutionalry psychologists, at least, will back me up on this one, for what that's worth). Just because she does well with Democratic women doesn't mean many Republican women won't be even more vehement in their opposition to her.
A Clinton nomination is the best hope the GOP has in this Fall's campaign. They will run against her up and down the ticket. And unlike the anti-Nancy Pelosi campaign of '06, casual voters have heard of Hillary.
I don't think a racist/sexist campaign is going to fly. Both Clinton and Obama have strong bases that will quickly call foul and make sure the media call foul, too.
It's far more likely that the GOP will run on scandals. They'll play Rezko for all it's worth, and dredge up every Clinton of the past -- never mind that there was never anything there; it's been out of the public eye for two terms and they'll make sure they make it seem fresh.
Very true.
Post A Comment