Victory shmicktory
In a frightening twist on the normal course of events, the Politico looks at the CW and pivots:
In a surprise twist after a chaotic Super Tuesday, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) passed Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) in network tallies of the number of delegates the candidates racked up last night.The Obama camp now projects topping Clinton by 13 delegates, 847 to 834.
NBC News, which is projecting delegates based on the Democratic Party's complex formula, figures Obama will wind up with 840 to 849 delegates, versus 829 to 838 for Clinton.
Keep in mind that going into tonight, Obama had won (meaning forget the superdelegates, which are meaningless right now) 63 delegates to Clinton's 48. If he wins a margin of another 10 delegates he'll have a still narrow (but growing) 25 point delegate lead. From there, he'll go into the next round of friendly primaries having won more states and more delegates than his primary. From there, though, things get tougher, and he really has to be hoping that a). February 12 goes extremely well and b). the media treats it as a significant victory.
If you hear Clinton touting her lead in delegates by counting superdelegates, consider it a sign of early desperation.
Comments
As far as I can tell super delegate votes count as much as regular delegate votes. They may break deciddedly Obama's way if he starts winning a series of significant victories, narrowly losing the popular vote while gaining narrow delegate wins is hardly more legitmate or persuasive than relying on elected officials.
One superdelegate carries as much weight as one delegate. But right now, Hillary's lead in superdelegates is largely a function of coincidence, and isn't even necessarily permanent.
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