Will the GOP block the stimulus package

Congressional leaders want to have a $700 billion stimulus plan ($350 billion a year for two years) ready for Obama to sign on day one. Matt Yglesias sounds a familiar note of caution:

Note, however, some perverse political incentives. If the Senate GOP minority blocks needed stimulus and the economy fails to recover, I think the odds are good that the Democratic president and congressional leadership will be the once to pay the price at the polls.

And, right on cue, here's John Boehner:

"Democrats can't seem to stop trying to outbid each other — with the taxpayers' money," House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) said in a statement. "We're in tough economic times. Folks are hurting. But the American people know that more Washington spending isn't the answer."

Still, I'm a little less pessimistic about a stimulus plan than I normally am about big legislation. For one thing, Boehner's probably a little to the right and to the stupid of your average Senate Republican and the Senate is the body in question. But for another, there's going to be (at least) 58 Democratic votes in the Senate. There will almost certainly be unanimity on a cloture vote from them. Assuming, for the sake of argument, that both Al Franken and Jim Martin lose, that means Harry Reid will need two Republicans to invoke cloture on what even conservative economists agree is a critical investment. All eyes will be on Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins, and there will be enormous pressure on them (as there will continue to be under Democratic rule) to buck their party.

Basically, the national Republican party has two avenues to near-term electoral success: They can give moderates leeway and hope Obama's plans fail on the merits, or they can somehow turn Collins and Snowe into extreme right wingers and enforce party unity on every major vote these next two years. All other roads lead to obsolescence. If the two vote with the Democrats, then stimulus (and possibly a number of other Obama initiatives) will move forward. If they vote no, then they are two of history's greatest villains and the people of Maine should demand their state constitution be amended to allow recalls of their congressional representatives, and they should lose their jobs.