'Educating' Hamas

Today's Tom Friedman column has been widely scorned and rightfully so. No need to reiterate what other folks have already said, but let me just touch on this:

Here’s what Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, said the morning after the morning after about his decision to start that war by abducting two Israeli soldiers on July 12, 2006: “We did not think, even 1 percent, that the capture would lead to a war at this time and of this magnitude. You ask me, if I had known on July 11 ... that the operation would lead to such a war, would I do it? I say no, absolutely not.”

That was the education of Hezbollah. Has Israel seen its last conflict with Hezbollah? I doubt it. But Hezbollah, which has done nothing for Hamas, will think three times next time. That is probably all Israel can achieve with a nonstate actor.

One of the things that makes his commentary so maddening is that, right there, Friedman acknowledges the failure of his own idea. In a conflict between states, one can imagine arguing a moral and practical case for the Friedman approach. The Nagasaki option. It's not a clear cut case by any means, but if one country attacks another, and that country responds by unleashing overwhelming force--enough force to make its enemy acknowledge the folly of fighting--then perhaps the disproportionate response was the right way forward. And then there's a peace treaty and then, perhaps, the dawn of friendlier relations.

If that sequence of hypothetical events mapped on to the Middle East, then the calculus would be different. Maybe Hamas kills a few Israelis, and Israelis respond by killing hundreds of Palestinians, and Hamas, now "educated", throws in the towel, agrees to recognize Israel, and a new peace process emerges. But even Thomas Friedman knows this isn't how things work. It didn't work with Hezbollah, and he knows that, next time, Hamas, like Hezbollah, will "think three times" before lashing out at Israel again. So when that attack comes on Friday instead of Tuesday, (or in September instead of March) we can be thankful for the added days of quiet, and then do this violent dance all over again.