I haven't been paying extremely close attention to the entitlement reform kerfuffle, so I won't comment substantively, at least for the time being. Let me just be meta for now and say that while I'm not worried (at least not yet) that a fight over social security benefits is in our immediate future, I'm at the same time uneasy about the politics of welcoming a bunch of Blue Dogs and Republicans to an entitlement reform summit. And I blanch every time anyone dignifies the idea that Social Security benefits need to be cut by playing host to them.
Still, Social Security was scarcely mentioned at today's event, and, viewing it in isolation from, say, Peter Orszag's past pronouncements, Obama et al. really do seem to be at pains to reframe entitlement reform as health reform.
Hopefully that's correct, and hopefully they succeed. But, there are still concerns. For instance, when Obama says "we will reinstate the pay-as-you-go rule", he's reiterating a pledge he made to Blue Dogs to keep his stimulus legislation alive in the House. But does that mean there will be no new stimulus measures? Even though his own chief of staff seems to acknowledge that the recovery bill on its own will be inadequate? I guess it depends in part on when Obama and the Dems plan on reinstituting paygo, and that remains totally unclear.
And then there's the fact that much of the media is both innumerate and incapable of dissociating the idea of entitlement reform from impoverishing old people ASAP. Here's what Obama said:
Now, I want to be very clear: While we are making important progress towards fiscal responsibility this year in this budget, this is just the beginning. In the coming years, we'll be forced to make more tough choices and do much more to address our long-term challenges, from the rising cost of health care that Peter described, which is the single most pressing fiscal challenge we face by far, to the long-term solvency of Social Security.
But here's how the AP's Liz Sidoti reported it:
He said he would reinstitute a pay-as-you-go rule that calls for spending reductions to match increases and would shun what he said were the past few years' "casual dishonesty of hiding irresponsible spending with clever accounting tricks." He called the long-term solvency of Social Security "the single most pressing fiscal challenge we face by far" and said reforming health care, including burgeoning entitlement programs, was a huge priority.
That's a particularly egregious twofer. Paygo only means matching increases with reductions if you've accepted the notion that the government can't raise taxes, and Obama very obviously did not say what Sidoti reported. But these are the waters Obama chose to swim in and he's going to be plagued by, at least, misperceptions like this as long as he insists on tackling "entitlement reform".
Comments
Thus far, I haven't been able to figure out what the big deal about all of this is. Yes, Obama has been using establishment language, but that's what you do when you're speaking to the establishment, and that's pretty clearly what Obama's doing. But, importantly, he's trying to do that to redefine the terms. Ezra's been all over this; entitlement reform=Medicare reform=healthcare reform. But I think there's a not un-substantial portion of the progressive movement that expects to, and borderline needs to, be screwed over, and so they'reon edge looking for slights under every stone. And part of the problem with that is that they're paying attention to the wrong people. They're reading things like what Sidoti wrote and flipping out about it, which becomes a problem when you realize that the reports are innacurate.
Considering that Obama was actually willing to entertain raising the cap on payroll taxes during the elections, I'm fairly comfortable with this administration handling things for now.
Also, I really couldn't disagree with this more:
"But these are the waters Obama chose to swim in and he's going to be plagued by, at least, misperceptions like this as long as he insists on tackling "'entitlement reform'"
Regardless of the wisdom in any tactical moves on the part of the White House, or how they choose to phrase their stances or whatever, there's absolutely ecuse whatsoever for a journalist of Sidoti's stature making such an unambiguous mistake as that, and there's no reason for the Obama administration to account for the possibility may completely fabricate his sentiments.
Rarely does a blog post encite me to make TWO comments (except as replies to another commenter), but today was one of those occasions, at Ezra's place, where I ranted not about Ezra, or the re-framing Obama/Orszag are attempting, but my fear about how the re-framing would be handled in actual negotiating.
My tentative guess that I'd take Social Security off the table first with a minor piece of legislation that removed the salary caps on employee/employer contributions and declared that work finished so that entitlement discussion could only be talking about and doing deeply substantative healthcare restructuring. Note my comments about negotiating tactics.
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